ApeCoin, Continued
Important disclosure: The section below is the same disclosure from the last ApeCoin post.
My initial position:
I have an ApeCoin position. The initial buys came through a liquidity pool on Uniswap ~10 minutes after the token launched at 8:30am on March 17th, 2022—before it was listed on CEXs. The position basis after multiple buys was ~$10/token. I’ve since added leveraged futures contracts via APEPERP. The basis on futures is currently $15.26/contract.
Updated:
I took profits on the initial spot position during the Thursday run-up to $27.62. After it pulled back to ~$22, I added to the futures position. The current basis on futures is ~$23.
ApeCoin is currently trading spot at $23.62 and futures at $23.43.
The following is not financial advice.
Today, we’re revisiting the ApeCoin trade from last week. In light of the price action over the last few days, it’s worth taking another look at this trade. I’m writing this on Saturday morning, so the Otherside launch just opened for pre-approval at 9am ET, and the minting will begin at 9pm ET.
The Catalyst
The catalyst in this ApeCoin trade already happened. It was speculation around the auction structure for the Otherside launch. The auction was first announced on April 25th as a dutch auction for metaverse land parcels called Otherdeeds—which would only be available for purchase with ApeCoin. This was long rumored to be the case and was the genesis for the trade idea.
The chart below shows the announcement for the Otherside auction on April 25th, the subsequent run-up of 51.25%, and the blowoff top on April 28th.
After the sell-off to the ~$18.50, we see a reversal to ~$25.50.
In the chart below, the yellow line marks the start of the pre-approval process for Otherside. All users will have a 12 hours window, between 9am ET and 9pm ET on April 30th to pre-approve their KYC’d wallets.
We see a small jump in price before selling off to the ~$21 level.
This is pure speculation based on feel for price action around launch events:
I would expect to see a new all-time high before Otherside launches. Many are buying into the token at the market price, but there is a bit of game theory at play, as I also expect a contingent of people waiting for a lower entry. So we have competing forces between those looking to profit on the short-term price action, people buying at the market, and those looking for a lower entry to buy the token to participate in the mint.